Try My Email Campaign Revenue Predictor for Free: Click Here to Try It >
Need to make more money from every campaign? Book a free 2026 Email & SMS Acceleration Session
For most ecommerce brands, an email campaign feels like a gamble.
You spend days — sometimes weeks — planning it.
You invest in design.
You write the copy.
You debate subject lines.
You schedule the send.
And then… you hope.
Hope it performs.
Hope it doesn’t tank your metrics.
Hope it actually makes money.
That hope-based approach is exactly why so many ecommerce brands feel frustrated, burned out, and confused about email marketing — even though they know email should be one of their biggest revenue drivers.
I’ve seen this story play out hundreds of times.
And for a long time, it was considered “normal.”
Until I learned how billion-dollar brands actually run email campaigns.
The Hidden Problem With Most Email Campaigns
Let’s say you’re an ecommerce brand sending regular email campaigns.
You might be working with:
An internal email manager
A freelancer
Or an email marketing agency
Each week, the same conversation happens:
“This one’s going to crush.”
“This is a big one.”
“We’re expecting a strong send.”
But when the campaign goes out?
Sometimes it works.
Most of the time… it doesn’t.
Revenue is inconsistent.
Klaviyo costs keep climbing.
Your list engagement slowly erodes.
And no one can clearly explain why.
That’s because most email campaigns are sent without a real revenue model behind them.
They’re based on vibes.
On opinions.
On past wins that may or may not repeat.
In ecommerce, that’s dangerous.
Every Email Campaign Costs You Money (Whether It Makes Money or Not)
Here’s a truth most brands don’t fully internalize:
Every email campaign you send costs you money.
Not hypothetically.
Not eventually.
Immediately.
If you’re using Klaviyo (like most ecommerce brands), every send burns credits.
The bigger your list, the higher the cost.
And that’s before you factor in:
Design time
Copywriting
Strategy
Agency fees
Internal labor
So when an email campaign doesn’t perform, it’s not “neutral.”
It’s a loss.
Worse — it also puts pressure on your list:
Lower engagement
Inbox fatigue
Deliverability risk
Most brands don’t calculate that cost upfront.
They only look backward.
And by then, the damage is already done.
How Billion-Dollar Brands Think About Email Campaigns
When I worked as VP for billion-dollar ecommerce brands, email wasn’t treated as an art project.
It was treated like an investment.
Before a single campaign went out, leadership wanted answers to very specific questions:
How much revenue will this email campaign generate?
What’s the cost to send it?
What’s the expected ROI?
Is this worth sending — or should we hold back?
No guessing.
No “let’s try it and see.”
Every campaign had to earn its place on the calendar.
That single shift — from guessing to predicting — changed everything.
And it exposed something uncomfortable about the industry.
The Lie Too Many Email Marketing Agencies Tell
Here’s the part most brands don’t like to admit.
Many email marketing agencies don’t know what your campaigns are supposed to make.
They’ll report opens.
Clicks.
Heatmaps.
Pretty dashboards.
But ask this simple question:
“How much revenue should this campaign have made before we sent it?”
Silence.
Because without a projection model, it’s impossible to tell whether a campaign:
Underperformed
Overperformed
Or was never worth sending in the first place
That’s how brands end up sending more and more campaigns, thinking volume will fix the problem.
It doesn’t.
It just increases cost, fatigue, and frustration.
Why I Built the Email Campaign Projection Calculator
After years of running email at scale, I realized something:
This way of thinking shouldn’t be exclusive to billion-dollar brands.
So I built the Email Campaign Projection Calculator.
One simple tool that answers the question every ecommerce brand should be asking:
“If I send this email campaign, how much money will it actually make?”
Not after the fact.
Not in a post-mortem.
Before you hit send.
How the Calculator Works (And Why It’s Different)
The calculator is intentionally simple — because complexity hides accountability.
You enter:
Your email list size
Your open rate
Your click-through rate
Your site conversion rate
Your AOV
Your email platform (like Klaviyo)
And instantly, it shows you:
Projected campaign revenue
Cost to send
Net revenue
ROI
Down to the dollar.
No fluff.
No guesswork.
For the first time, you can look at an email campaign before it goes out and decide:
“Is this worth sending?”
The Klaviyo Wake-Up Call
One of the biggest surprises for brands using the calculator is seeing how expensive email actually is.
Klaviyo feels cheap… until it doesn’t.
When you factor in:
Large lists
Frequent sends
Poor-performing campaigns
You realize something shocking:
You’re paying more to send emails than you’re making from them.
That’s how I helped brands:
Cut Klaviyo costs in half
Send fewer campaigns
Make more revenue overall
Because the goal isn’t more email.
It’s better email.
From Guesswork to Strategy
Here’s where things get powerful.
Once you can predict revenue, email marketing becomes strategic instead of emotional.
You can:
Kill low-performing campaign ideas before they go out
Double down on high-ROI sends
Protect your list
Plan your calendar based on projected revenue
Instead of:
“We should probably send something this week.”
You’re saying:
“This campaign is projected to make $42,000 with a 9x ROI.”
That changes conversations inside your business.
Why This Matters for Ecommerce Brands Right Now
Ecommerce is harder than it’s ever been.
Paid media is expensive
Margins are tighter
Customers are overwhelmed
Email is one of the last remaining high-leverage channels.
But only if it’s run correctly.
Blasting campaigns without a plan doesn’t work anymore.
The brands that win are the ones that:
Send fewer emails
With higher intent
Backed by real projections
That’s how durable revenue is built.
Demand-Based Email Marketing (The Missing Piece)
One of the most important concepts the calculator introduces is demand.
If a campaign is projected to make:
$500
$1,000
$2,000
Is it really worth sending to your entire list?
Sometimes the smartest move is not sending.
Instead:
Improve the offer
Improve the targeting
Improve the message
Then send one great campaign instead of five weak ones.
That’s how you protect your list and your bottom line.
What This Means for Email Marketing Agencies
If you’re working with an email marketing agency, this tool becomes a truth serum.
Now you can ask:
What was this campaign projected to make?
Did we hit it?
If not, why?
No more vague answers.
No more “brand building” excuses for poor performance.
Just real numbers.
And real accountability.
This Is How the Best Brands Operate
This approach isn’t theoretical.
It’s how:
Enterprise ecommerce teams operate
High-level retention teams think
Billion-dollar brands protect revenue
They don’t hope.
They plan.
They project.
They execute with intention.
Why I’m Giving This Away for Free
This calculator used to live behind closed doors.
Now, it’s free.
Because ecommerce brands deserve better than guesswork.
Because email should make money — not drain it.
Because strategy should come before execution.
If you’re sending an email campaign without knowing what it’s supposed to make, you’re flying blind.
And you don’t need to anymore.
Your Next Step
Before you send your next email campaign:
Go to HiFlyerDigital.com/AI-campaigns
Plug in your numbers
See the projection
Decide if it’s worth sending
Then compare the projection to the actual results.
That gap — or alignment — will tell you everything you need to know.
About your strategy.
About your agency.
About your growth.
And about whether your email marketing is actually working.
👉 Need help implementing a smarter email campaign calendar?
Take action now:
Book a Free Email & SMS Audit & Discover The True Revenue Potential of Your List >
Loved this blog post? Take one of these next steps: